Upgrading at Outside Linebacker? High Picks Are the Way To Go

Everybody knows that NFL superstars can somehow fall through the cracks of the scouting and drafting process. Guys like future Hall of Famer Tom Brady last until the 199th overall pick, offensive superstars like Arian Foster or Wes Welker go undrafted, or right here in Green Bay, capable cornerbacks like Tramon Williams or Sam Shields come right off the undrafted-free-agent scrap heap. These are great stories and they get a lot of media attention, but the fact is that more often than not, NFL teams get what they pay for in acquiring a player.

Nowhere is this more true than at outside linebacker. For three years, the Packers have tried to make it work opposite Clay Matthews III with a collection of late-round picks, undrafted free agents and veterans playing out of position. Aaron Kampman, Brad Jones, Frank Zombo, Erik Walden, Brandon Chillar, Vic So'oto and Jamari Lattimore have all been a part of this trend, and none of them have developed into a solid starter. Jones had a good end to 2011, Zombo and Walden have had streaks of solid play, and So'oto and Lattimore have yet to really get their shot. But if Thompson really wants to address the position, the current state of the NFL says that he'll have to spend a high pick.

The vast majority of the NFL's best outside linebackers were drafted in the first or second rounds. Clay Matthews (26th overall pick), DeMarcus Ware (11th), Terrell Suggs (10th, plays both OLB and DE), Tamba Hali (20th), Brian Orakpo (13th), LaMarr Woodley (46th) and Connor Barwin (46th) were all drafted in those rounds. Brooks Reed (42nd), Aldon Smith (7th)* and Ryan Kerrigan (16th), former first- or second-round picks, all had strong rookie seasons in 2011 but need a larger body of work to be in that conversation.

Trying to determine the "best" linebacker is relative and subjective. Different players have different skill-sets. Ware, Suggs and Hali are better pure pass-rushers than Clay Matthews, say, but Matthews is one of the best of this group in coverage. Different schemes also place more or less responsibility on the OLBs. Taking that all into account, I would say James Harrison (undrafted) is the only one of the NFL's best outside 'backers to not be a former first- or second-round pick. You get what you pay for as a GM, and Harrison is the only real exception to this rule: you have to spend a high pick to get the best OLBs.

Now, that's not to say that all first-round OLBs are gold. Guys like Anthony Spencer (26th) or Calvin Pace (18th) are current starters and former first-rounders that are best described as solid. Neither one would be in the discussion of the NFL's best 3-4 OLBs. Busts like Aaron Maybin (11th) or Robert Ayers (18th) remind us that it's completely possible for first-round OLBs, or collegiate DEs that project as OLBs, to flame out in the pros.

But with a preponderance of the NFL's best being first- or second-round picks, it's clear to me that you can only spend so much time trying to get a quality starting OLB for a bargain-basement price. Maybe So'oto or Lattimore will turn out to be the next James Harrison, and maybe McCarthy's building-from-within program will turn out another Desmond Bishop or Tramon Williams. But it would be foolish for GM Ted Thompson and his scouting department to count on that happening and not draft an OLB for the third straight year. If you want the best at OLB, often enough you have to pay for the best. Perhaps it's time for the Packers to pony up opposite Matthews.

*I used mostly starters on 3-4 teams for this analysis, but Aldon Smith was an exception; he had fourteen sacks coming off the bench that I couldn't just ignore. For similar reasons, Mario Williams (1st) started the season as a 3-4 OLB, but because of the small sample size due to his season-ending injury and the fact that he'll be playing as a 4-3 DE in 2012 (as he was in 2006-10) I left him out of the analysis.