Your Packers Playoff Bible, Part 1: The San Francisco 49ers

Merry Christmas, Patch readers! As a present for y'all, I will be doing a five-part scouting report covering all of the opponents the Packers can face in the NFC playoffs.

We're going to start with the just-clinched No. 2 seed, the NFC West champion San Francisco 49ers.

All statistics are through Week 16.

Who they are: The 13-3 49ers won the NFC West with a solid offense predicated on the running of Frank Gore and the efficient passing of Alex Smith, coupled with a suffocating defense that has allowed opponents to score 20+ points only thrice all year (Dallas, Philadelphia, N.Y. Giants). They're allowing opponents to rush for only 75 yards per game, and have allowed only one rushing TD and one 100-yard rusher all year (both came in Week 16, courtesy of Marshawn Lynch). They don't turn the ball over, they're efficient on offense and their pass defense is adequate.

The Niners' most impressive victory was probably beating Detroit on the road in Week 6, 25-19; besides that, they've largely feasted on terrible teams, courtesy of a favorable schedule and a weak division. Their wins have come against Washington, Seattle (twice), Tampa Bay, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Arizona, and St. Louis, none of which finished with a winning record. They've beaten playoff teams New York Giants, Cincinnati, Detroit and Pittsburgh (with Ben Roethlisberger hobbled with a high ankle sprain), and lost to Baltimore. Arizona and Dallas were their other two losses. The Niners have yet to place a starter on injured reserve.

Game-breaker: TE Vernon Davis. Chosen one spot after A.J. Hawk in the 2006 draft, Davis has played three games against the Packers and whupped them in all three. In 2006, he caught three balls for 74 yards, including a 52-yard TD when several players missed open-field tackles. In 2009, he caught six for 108 and a TD, and in 2010 he caught four for 126, including a ridiculous 66-yard catch-and-run TD after Nick Collins whiffed on the tackle. Cynics will see a pattern of increasing yardage developing here, but it's worth noting that the Packers won all three of those games.

This season, Davis has 59 receptions for 674 yards and six TDs. The 2009 Pro Bowler ranks just 13th in yardage among tight ends, but he's unquestionably the most dangerous receiver in San Francisco, as well as a dangerous red-zone option for Alex Smith. According to ESPN.com's Mike Sando, he's turned seven red-zone targets into six catches for four touchdowns, the fourth-best percentage in the league. Davis is a little short and light for a tight end (6’3”, 250), but he's an excellent athlete, can be a jarring blocker and has the speed to outrun safeties (especially slow-footed Packer Charlie Peprah). Morgan Burnett probably matches up with him best on defense.

Achilles' heel: With the departure of CB Nate Clements in free agency, the Niners are thin at cornerback. They're currently starting ex-Redskin Carlos Rogers and former fifth-round pick Tarell Brown, without a lot of depth behind them at least on paper. The Niners allow 233 passing yards per game, eighteenth in the league, and have given up 19 TDs (t-9th fewest). Safeties Donte’ Whitner and Dashon Goldson anchor their secondary, and while the Niners have held up well against weak NFC West foes, I like Aaron Rodgers’ chances against them. Michael Vick’s 416 passing yards, Tony Romo’s 345 yards, Roethlisberger’s 330, Eli Manning’s 311 and Matthew Stafford’s 293 yards against them show that it can certainly be done.

Why you must fear them: The 49ers are the NFC playoff team best suited to executing the Kansas City recipe for beating Green Bay: Run the ball well, control the clock and don't commit turnovers. The Packers' defense leads the league in interceptions, but Alex Smith has thrown only five all year. In a year of ridiculously prolific passers, Smith has yet to have a 300-yard game in 2011, and while he entered Week 17 on track to pass for over 3,000 yards, it won't be by much. Don't let that fool you, though; he is quite capable of making the clutch throws. Frank Gore remains one of the NFL’s premier backs at 28, and he runs behind an offensive line that includes three young first-round draft picks (LT Joe Staley, LG Mike Iupati, RT Anthony Davis).

The 49ers control the clock (31:56/g, sixth in NFL), protect the ball and force turnovers. As of this writing, they have the best turnover ratio in the league (+26, six ahead of Green Bay)*, and have picked off 21 passes (second behind Green Bay) while defensing 114 (second to GB). While they’ve "only" amassed 38 sacks, tied for 13th in the league, rookie LB Aldon Smith has 14 of them and has been relentless off the edge. He and elite 3-4 end Justin Smith would be a serious problem for Green Bay's patchwork offensive line. And you can't forget elite ILBs Patrick Willis and Navorro Bowman; Willis is probably the best inside linebacker in the NFL, and Bowman hasn’t been far behind this year. The Niners are holding opponents to a scanty 13.5 points per game, fewest in the league.

Why they’d be easy prey: All season long, the Packers have been vulnerable to teams with a good receiving corps and a QB who's comfortable throwing it deep (see: Phillip Rivers to Vincent Jackson, Cam Newton to Steve Smith, Eli Manning to everybody, etc). San Francisco’s receiving corps might be its weakest facet, however. No. 1 WR Michael Crabtree, taken one spot after B.J. Raji in 2009, leads the team with a pedestrian 64 receptions for 788 yards and two TDs. No other WR has more than 250. The Niners picked up ex-Brown and Jet Braylon Edwards for $1 million in August, but Edwards has merely 181 yards and no TDs. Delanie Walker, Ted Ginn Jr. and Kyle Williams aren’t statistically much better. It's hard to see Alex Smith winning a shootout with Aaron Rodgers, especially with the way the team is built.

Under first-year head coach Jim Harbaugh, San Francisco has won through defense and just enough offense. They've scored 30+ points just twice this year and 40+ only once, in a defense-fueled rout of moribund Tampa Bay. They like to run Frank Gore, control the clock and play from ahead. The Packers' quick-strike offense could be a serious problem for that philosophy; the Niners aren't built to make up deficits, their fourth-quarter comeback against the Eagles aside. If the Packers' offense is clicking when these teams meet, the Niners would likely be unable to keep up with GB's league-leading 34.3 points per game.

*That is, they've forced 26 more turnovers on defense and special teams than they’ve committed on offense and special teams.