Your Packers Playoff Bible, Part III: The New Orleans Saints

Editor's Note: all statistics are through Week 16.

Who they are: The Saints are 13-3 NFC South champions and the No. 3 seed. They're essentially the Packers, but just as good if not better in some areas. The teams are built along essentially the same lines: they have a great quarterback, an extremely deep and varied corps of wide receivers, a playmaking tight end and a defense that gives up tons of yardage. The difference comes in the running game, where Pierre Thomas, Chris Ivory, Mark Ingram and Darren Sproles are the NFL's most dangerous group of backs. The Saints lead the league in passing offense and in total offense, and they’ve rushed for the ninth-most yards (1,919) while averaging 4.8 yards a carry, fifth-best in the league.

Like the Packers, the Saints have a decent rush defense on paper; they've "held" opponents to 1,574 yards rushing, 10th in the league (the Packers rank 16th). Look closer, though, and you'll notice two things: 1) The Saints allow 4.8 yards per carry (tied for 27th in the league) and 2) opponents have run the ball just 327 times against them all year, the fewest in the league by a tenth of a percentage point. The message is clear: The most important part of the Saints' run defense is Drew Brees. The Saints' league-leading offense, which averages nearly sixty more yards per game than the Packers and is second in points per game, quickly forces opponents to abandon the run.

Game-Breaker: When the Saints signed "The Lightning Bug" in the off-season to fill the Reggie Bush-shaped hole in their offense, most people (including me) figured him to be just another role player on a talented offense. WRONG. He's the do-everything keystone of the Saints' entire game. Darren Sproles has 81 catches, sixth-most in the league at any position, for 681 yards and six TDs. He's run the ball 81 times for 563 yards (7 yards a pop) and two TDs. As if that wasn't enough, he’s also averaging 27.2 yards per kickoff return and 9.6 yards a punt. (For comparison, Randall Cobb is averaging 27.7 and 11.3 respectively; Sproles' special teams numbers aren't elite, but they're very, very good.)

Against the Packers in the season opener, Sproles caught seven passes for 75 yards, carried twice for seven yards, had a 57-yard kickoff return that led to a TD and a 72-yard punt return TD. Standing just 5'6" and weighing 190 pounds, Sproles ranks up there with DeSean Jackson and Chris Johnson as one of the fastest players in the league. None of Green Bay's linebackers have the speed to cover him out of the backfield, and he made Desmond Bishop and A.J. Hawk look like stone carvings on a 36-yard catch-and-run. Against Green Bay was easily his best game, and it's possible that the cold conditions of a January rematch at Lambeau would slow him down, especially considering the workload he’s had this season. If not, however, the Packers could be mowed down by the diminutive Sproles. 

Weakest Link: No Packers fan can forget the Saints defense pulverizing Brett Favre in the 2009 NFC Championship game. Although the Saints never recorded a sack, Favre was hit at least fourteen times and was physically beaten by the time the game ended. That game serves as a reminder that sacks don't tell the whole story. However, based on the sack numbers, the Saints defense has struggled to get pressure on anybody this season. They've sacked enemy QBs just 31 times, tied with four other teams for 20th in the league, and don't have any top-tier pass-rushers. Their leading sacker is safety Roman Harper, who has 7.5. DE Will Smith has 6.5. Mammoth defensive tackles Shaun Rogers and Aubrayo Franklin have combined for none. Even with uncertainty at both offensive tackle spots, the Packers shouldn't have too much of a problem with this weak group.

Why you must fear them: Have you seen the Saints’ offense? They've had eight games against playoff-level teams (Green Bay, Chicago*, Houston, Atlanta (2x), Detroit, Tennessee N.Y. Giants) and won five of them, the only exception being Green Bay. The Saints have scored forty points or better five times during the season, three of which have come in the Saints' current seven-game winning streak, and average 33.5 points per game (second behind GB).

The man who makes this offense go is QB Drew Brees. He holds the single-season record for passing yardage and is the only quarterback in history to throw for over 5,000 yards in two separate seasons. In Week 1, Brees carved up a Packers secondary that still had Nick Collins for 412 yards, three TDs and no picks on 32 of 49 passing. Tight end Jimmy Graham is everything Jermichael Finley was advertised to be and more; a 6'6" former basketball player, he's caught 91 passes for 1,213 yards and ten TDs. Five of Brees' top receiving targets, including Graham and Sproles, have six or more TDs. The Packers simply don't have the folks to cover the Saints' many weapons, or to stifle Brees with the pass-rush (his lethal quick-release arm negates a lot of pass-rushing potential anyway). After sixteen weeks, if the Packers' defense can’t stop Kahlil Bell and Josh McCown, how are they supposed to stop one of the best QBs currently playing?

Why they’d be easy prey: In the Saints' Super Bowl run in 2009, New Orleans’ defense recovered 13 of 15 forced fumbles and picked off 26 passes. Keyed by these statistics, the Saints' +11 turnover ratio ranked third in the NFL. They topped themselves in the playoffs that year, committing just one turnover while picking off four passes and recovering four of five forced fumbles. Their trademark, especially former Packers safety Darren Sharper, was being opportunistic and focusing on turnovers above all other considerations.

This year, the Saints are tied for second-last in the entire league with a measly eight interceptions. While they have forced sixteen fumbles, New Orleans has recovered just six of them. Their turnover ratio is –4, an uninspiring 23rd in the league. Meanwhile, Drew Brees has thrown fourteen interceptions and the team has lost four fumbles. Brees is phenomenally accurate, but because of that accuracy, he will often throw into tight coverage and it doesn't always work out. Against the Falcons in Week 16 he threw two picks on tipped passes to well-covered receivers. And during his 22-interception campaign one year ago, Brees suffered from having his passes tipped and picked off at the line of scrimmage; at 6'0", short for a QB, that’s just going to happen with him.

When the Packers played the Saints in Week 1, every defensive stop by either team came as a complete surprise. Wisconsin winter or no Wisconsin winter, this game would be an absolute shootout. Getting a turnover or two, and the extra possessions that come with them, could decide the game on their own. Aaron Rodgers’ ability to avoid those turnovers, and the Packers defense’s ability to create them, could wind up being the difference in such a contest.

*Yes, Chicago missed the playoffs, but New Orleans dismantled the Bears when they still had Matt Forte and Jay Cutler, which is why I'm including them as 'playoff-level'.